Wilmington North Carolina and surrounding area
I believe we have reached our peak in listings, we are just under 6,000 single family homes. We have a 1.0% increase in units over last month. With 5,996 single family homes for sale in our MLS. The average list price of $423,329 is down by 1.0% from last month. Our current inventory is about 96 units short of what we had in July of 2007. Last year this time we had a listing inventory of 6,092 units and an average list price of $451,612.00. I am sure there are sellers sitting on the fence waiting to list their home; they are just waiting for the market conditions to improve. #1
#1
The number of sold homes in June is down 12.8% from last month. Our monthly average sold price is down 4.8% from last month and down 4.8% from June 2007 and down 2.8% from June 2006. The last couple of years we have seen a steady monthly average sales price, look at the chart and you can see our brief decline for 2008 in the average sales price. Note that June has a very tight level of average sold price over the last 3 years.
See chart # 2
#2
Market Absorption rate – The number of homes sold in June, 430 divided by the current listing inventory, 5,996 gives us a 13.9 month supply of single family homes, a increase of 1.7 months from last month.
List to Sold price ratio – the average list price of the sold properties is $285,427 and the average sold price is $269,111 for June which gives us a 94.2% list to sold price ratio. Our list to sold price ratio has moved down from last month by .9%
Seller Concessions – 24.7% of sold properties in June reported a sales concession, a increase of almost 2.6% from last month. The average concession for the month was about $3,496.00
Days on Market – The average days on market for the sold properties took 10 days longer to sell over last month. We averaged 122 days for the month of June. Over 17.2% of the properties were placed under contract in less than 15 days for the month of June. This is a decrease of 3% from last month.
When we look at a rolling 12 months our current average sales price remains behind year over year comparisons. Our current year over year (07/01/07 – 06/30/08) average sold price of $268,304 is .001% behind $268,565 of this time last year. Our number of sold unit’s year over year is 5,428 units compared to 7,223 last year this time, a decrease of 24.9%. Our monthly sold units continue to lag behind the last couple of years. Our 12 month rolling average continues to show us that we are in line with last year.
See Chart # 3
# 3
Year over year our year to date numbers have dipped a little.
2003 year end average sale price $ 186,137
2004 year end average sale price $ 210,048
2005 year end average sale price $ 254,080
2006 year end average sale price $ 264,520
2007 year end average sale price $ 273,701
2008 year to date average sale price $ 269,112
See chart #4
# 4
Median Sold Price – Our Median sold price is $ 212,850 for June 08’. This is a 3.8% increase over last month. I hope this is a trend that we have hit bottom, but we need several more months to determine that. See chart #5
#5
Carolina & Kure Beach
There are currently 698 single family homes for sale and this represents a 16 unit decrease over June and 11.6% of our total WRAR inventory. The average list price is $534,822 a decrease of $7,920 over June 08’. In June there were 30 homes sold, divide that by the homes available and you have a 23.26 month supply of homes in Carolina and Kure Beach – this is the second month that we have seen the supply of homes stay the same. The average sold price for the month of June was $415,720 a increase over June 07’ which was $370,544.When I look at the first 6 months of 2008 and the first 6 months of 2007 our average sales price is down 5.7%. In 2008 we have had only one more sale that the first six months of 2007. From June 2006 to May 2007 there were 292 sales for an average sales price of $419,559.
With the year half over it is hard to suggest where we are going, after a review of our numbers we know that we are down in sold units and managing to maintain our average sales price. Our year over year is down by only $261 or .001%. I could not agree any stronger that now is the best time to buy. It is a real Buyers Market. We have a few plus factors – Our listing inventory has about peaked out as anticipated and the average list price has remained stable. Our absorption rate has 13.9 months of housing supply. The amount of sellers paying concessions is 24.7%, we want this number going down and it went up just a little. Then I look at the factors that are slowing us down. Our average days on the market are 122 days which is typical for a buyers market it went up by 10 days over last month. The list to sold ratio is 94.3% we want this number to be going up, and it went down .09% from last month. Our sold units over last year same month is down by 24.9%. One area I continue to look at is the Pending Inventory, and based on the current numbers I think we will see July’s sold numbers lower than June’s sold units. Our pending inventory numbers has gone from the 1,000 range into the low 900’s.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on August 5th. For the moment they have agreed to leave the short term interest rates alone, but if inflation continues to grow we will see the Fed tighten and possibly raise the short term rate. The financial market has a lot of issues it is dealing with. Interest rates have remained in the 6.25% range with points.
This data was pulled on July 11, 2008. Based on information from the Wilmington Regional Association of REALTORS Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005 through June 30, 2008 and Comprised by David Flory.
